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The New Structure, The New Economy——The 2016 Second Quarterly Review of Employment in China Was Held Successfully in RUC
Time:2016-7-21

On July 21, 2016, China Institute for Employment Research successfully held 2016 Second Quarterly Review of Employment in China at Room 347 of Qiushi Building, RUC. Peng Yongtao, Deputy Director of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, Wu Jie, Chief of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, Guo Cheng, Director of Employment Promotion Department, National Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Wu Xingyan, General manager assistant of Suzhou Industrial Park, Zhang Xiaoguang, Director of the Human Resources Research and Development Center of Suzhou Industrial Park, Li Qiang, Marketing Communications Director of Zhilian Zhao Pin, Hao Jianbin, Employment Research Director of Alibaba Group, Ge Ling, General manager of the Department of government affairs of 58.com, etc, attended the meeting at invitation. Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Director of CIER, Professor of SLHR, Professor Yi Dinghong, Associate Professor Su Zhongxing, Associate Professor Tu Yongqian, Associate Professor Liu Xiangbo, and other researchers,Geng Lin, Xia Zuhao, Hao Yuming, Wu Jinyu, Zhang Chenggang, Mao Yufei, etc., also participated in the meeting. The meeting was hosted by Associate Professor Ge Yuhao, Researcher of CIER, Associate Professor of SLHR.

 

 

In the theme report stage, CIER deputy researcher Geng Lin made the CIER report with the theme of "new economy, new opportunities". From the macroeconomic situation, the second quarter GDP grew by 6.7%, unchanged from the first quarter, better than expected. But investment growth continued to decline, fixed asset investment in the first half rose to 9.0%, The third industry in the second quarter growth of 7.5%, continuous eight quarter higher than the secondary industry growth, after new bank lending slightly slowed down in April and May, it had the accelerated growth again for 13800 billion yuan in June. Corresponding to this, the CIER index rose from 1.71 to 1.93 in the second quarter of 2016, the employment situation is stable, and the macroeconomic situation is better than expected but still exist in the uncertainty situation. Since the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2016, CIER index cycle components were presented downward trend, but the decline narrowed significantly, indicating that the employment situation began to appear some signs of stabilization. From the selected categories of industry sample of Zhilian Zhaopin, the total online recruitment demand grew by 21% year on year in 2016 second quarter, which also confirms that the cultivation of China's new economic structure, developing new energy initiatives have achieved initial success, the rapid growth of the new economy to traditional economic downturn has played a important role in the hedge.

 

For industries, in the sub industry, the employment situation of the two level of differentiation is still very obvious, in which the CIER index of the largest CIER index industry (Internet / e-commerce) is nearly 47 times higher than the minimum industry (energy / mineral / mining / smelting). Research shows: (1) the new economy greatly enhance the confidence of employment; the traditional industry employment situation remains in the doldrums. From the fourth quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2016, the development of e-commerce and shared economy unceasingly mature, the demand for talent and attractiveness increased significantly, the CIER index climbed all the way. In the second quarter of 2016, the lowest CIER index was in the energy industry, traditional manufacturing and heavy industry. In the context of the traditional economy continued to decline as well as the reform and transformation of enterprises, the demand for talent recruitment in related industries has not increased significantly, which resulted the situation of the low CIER index. In addition, as to the policy of “dropping production capacity, dropping inventory, deleveraging, reducing cost, making up the short board” will continue to promote, the employment situation of traditional industries is relatively severe. (2) IT industry vigorous development, the Internet / e-commerce of small and micro enterprises "grab people busy", urban labor demand of three lines booming. Since 2016, the IT/ Internet industry attain the largest development with the influence of the new economy, its CIER index ranked first in all industries, for 11.47. Scale enterprises under 500 people released online position accounted for 82% of the total position, small and micro enterprises is still the main force to absorb employment. Compared with the same period of last year, three line cities (including three below) has the highest online job growth, 64%, faster than first-tier cities (20%), and a new line of city year-on-year growth of 38%, this shows that more and more enterprise IT begin to channel sinks, opened the "city surrounded by rural" development strategy. (3) the demand of bank is the strongest, and the demand of medium-sized enterprises in the financial industry is the highest, and the demand is mainly concentrated in the medium-sized enterprises. (4) electrical business development drives the express business growth; the boom of traffic/transportation industry employment keeps rising. Driven by the rapid growth in the volume of express traffic, the demand for talent in the transport / transport sector has also been a substantial growth in the second quarter of 2016, the highest rate of employment is in the transportation / transportation industry, an increase of 58%. (5) the real estate industry labor demand presents a dumbbell shape, micro enterprises and large enterprises have the highest employment demand. For regions, the employment situation of the central and western regions significantly warmer, compared with the northeast sluggish growth. In the second quarter, compared with the same period last year, the number of online posts in the central region has the highest increase of 29%. An increase of 23% in the western region. In the second quarter of 2016, the number of online posts in the northeast region accounted for only 5% of the national total, recruitment demand increased by 14% compared with the same period of last year. Affected by the lack of enterprise labor demand growth and talent "Southeast Fly" and other factors the northeast region's employment situation is relatively the worst, in urgent need of the new economic growth engine to boost employment. For urban levels, the new line and second-tier cities to further enhance the attractiveness of the city, three-line city employment situation get better. For enterprise size, the number of recruitment positions of small enterprises is the most, and the employment situation of the miniature enterprise is the best. Benefit from the promotion of new economy and policy support, the wave of innovation and entrepreneurship in China is rising, a large number of start-up companies significantly stimulate the labor market demand for talent. Based on the above analysis, forecast the employment situation will appear big probability of stabilization.in the second half of 2016.

 

Director Zhang Xiaoguang delivered a speech entitled "Report Human Resources Situation in Suzhou Industrial Park in the Second Quarter of 2016”. Firstly, he analyzed human resources index of the park and market data, influenced by the economic environment, the park's human resources demand index fell more significantly, the enterprises labor demand presents the tendency of decline. From the point of supply situation, following the first quarter seasonal job peak, effected by the poor market demand, the reduce of job seekers confidence, the market supply has declined in the second quarter. Therefore, in the second quarter of 2016, the human resources market supply and demand present double down trend, which supply more significant decline. In the second quarter park human resources presents the following characteristics: (1) the total employed population showed a downward trend; (2) industry practitioners distribution pattern rearrangement: machinery industry more than electronic equipment manufacturing industry to become the first employment industry; electronic equipment manufacturing industry continued to show employment reduction trend. The number of workers of Internet communications industry has 14.51% growth compared to the end of 2015, the growth rate reached record highs. (3) shortage of skilled workers, senior technical workers' income level is higher; (4) the growth rate of the four major categories of post salary growth has slowed. From the point of this year's graduates’ employment situation, Suzhou industrial park, modern service industry, nanotechnology applications, cloud computing and other three industries are expected to recruit a higher proportion of graduates. Electronic information and other traditional manufacturing industries show a weak ability to absorb fresh graduates. According to the Real time platform research of Research and Development Center, is expected in the third quarter, the employment needs of enterprises is relatively cautious, 63.6% of enterprises and employment was flat, 19.6% of the enterprise labor will be reduced, only 16.8% of enterprises and employment will increase.

 

Tu Yongqian, an assistant professor of SLHR, has made a report entitled "Progress in the Proceedings of the UBER Series in the United States and the Regulation of Sharing Ride in Some States". Tu Yongqian, mainly from the perspective of labor relations, introduced China and the United States’ ride sharing case and its verdict and influence. Uber, 58 City and other enterprises dispatch tasks to employee through sharing platform, the main debate of case is that the employment problems between information service platform provider and service provider as well as the existence of their labor relations. TuYongqian introduced series cases of Uber in the United States and the development of the situation. The first stage: in one case, 2015 California Labor Committee believes that Uber company has the right to control the working details of Uber drivers, based on employment relationship; The second stage: California Committee sentenced this case as collective lawsuit in dealing with whether Uber drivers are employees or independent contractors. Whether there is any employee relationship will be based on ‘Borello test’, comprehensively considering 11 factors, among which the most important factor is whether the employer controls or has the right to control the details of employees’ work. Tu Yonqian believes, the operation mode of Uber has brought huge impact to the traditional taxi market. In addition, the US courts and administrative department can neither clearly define Uber as a taxi service company or a technology platform, nor those who drive their own cars are employees of Uber or its partners. He briefly introduced the regulation to ride sharing in some US states, such as California first proposed the concept of Transportation Network Company (TNC), and thus formed "California model" of car regulation; Colorado implemented the first state law on car regulation, which became an important step in the legislation of taxi regulation in the United States. Finally, Tu points out that the key of the research is to define the legal relationships between the network platform and independent contractors.

 

After that, in the free talk period, the leaders and experts spoke highly of the seminar and carried out extensive and in-depth discussions.

 

Peng Yongtao, the Deputy Director of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, emphasized that, firstly, the employment situation in the first half of this year is quite stable, which means the employment data matches with the whole economic situation. The surveyed unemployment rate in the second season is a little bit higher than that of the first season, which is about 5.2%. Secondly, 31 cities are stable as a whole, while the employment pressure in middle-sized and small cities becomes larger. From the perspective of regions, the employment in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta goes stable. From the perspective of industries, employees in the second industry are decreasing and with the influence of cutting excessive industrial capacity, the employees in iron, steel and coal industry decrease by 10%. In addition, from the semi-annual survey of the three major industries (construction, manufacturing, catering) survey, employment situation stabilized, but there are several issues that need to focus on. Firstly, a high degree of attention to the impact of investment on employment; secondly, concerned about "de-capacity" on the impact of employment; thirdly, concerned about the employment of college graduates. In recent years, the total number of college graduates continues to increase, the second half of the new graduates to enter the job stage, the employment situation goes tight.

 

Wu Jie, Director of the Division of Population and Employment Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, focused on the data on enterprise employment surveys of more than 1,400 enterprises in 15 provinces. The results show that: (1) the number of employees is decreasing. Manufacturing fell by 5.6%, the decline by 4 percentage points, the construction industry decreased by 6.2%, a decline of 7.7% expansion, accommodation, catering industry fell by 2.8%; (2) The proportion of enterprises with increasing employment costs is declining, and the phenomenon of recruitment difficulties has been alleviated. (3) the second half is expected to be more optimistic.

 

The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Department of Employment Promotion Director Guo Cheng mainly analyzed employment situation. He summarized the first half of the employment situation as "the overall stable but difficult." From the "stability", the 31 provinces of the unemployment rate remained at a relatively low level, enterprise employment slowed down, key groups of graduates, and migrant workers’ employment is basically stable. From the "difficult" side, corporate employment is still in decline, in some areas of the economic downturn, increased unemployment risk, and there are some areas of employment pressure. Employment pressure is severe in northeast area and small cities in the first half of this year. In addition, the current data shows that business needs of graduates to reduce, so the third quarter of the employment pressure of graduates will increase. The future in the "de-capacity" process, the first to be affected by this impact are migrant workers, followed by urban workers. As for the "de-capacity", the Department of Social and Social Department of the main department should endeavor from the direction of promoting the employment of workers. In accordance with the requirements of the State Council, a thorough investigation should be conducted to the local workers in the second half of the year. In addition, the current new forms of employment and its emerging problems and challenges are also new areas of concern to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

 

Suzhou Industrial Park, Yuancai Human Resources Development Co., Ltd. Assistant General Manager Wu Xingyan mainly introduced the Suzhou Industrial Park in the employment characteristics. First, the Suzhou Industrial Park, the total population is increasing but slower. Future city location for Suzhou is a logistics and financial center, and the future demand for talent will be based on this benchmark. Second, due to labor costs and international environmental impact, Suzhou labor-intensive enterprises relocate to northern Jiangsu and Southeast Asia, the current park in the introduction of Huawei and other technology-intensive enterprises to promote the development of related industry chain.

 

Li Qiang, Director of Public Relations Department of Zhilian Zhaopin, based on the data from Zhilian Zhaopin and reached the following conclusions: (1) the growth rate of job seekers is far more than the number of job growth rate; (2) the financial industry and the Internet industry is obviously hot, the pressure of competition, the manufacturing industry growth rate is relatively low; (3) this year, graduates of entrepreneurship boom has declined; (4) the number of large-scale enterprises to recruit all the decline in the employment rate of college students is relatively high; (5) blue-collar industry two dividends more serious; (6) small micro-enterprise demand is boosting but the number of job seekers is small.


Hao Jianbin, the overall head of employment research of Alibaba Group, indicated that the consumer demand in the future will be more personalized and diversified, and more attention from employment will be paid to free employment and experience of the work. Platform-based employment meets the needs of people at the same time, making the natural person directly connect with the demand side of the platform or the consumer side through the account, which reduces transaction costs, and achieves the value of consumption. Meanwhile, entrepreneurship can be achieved through the platform. He believes that the future of the new economy has the following four characteristics: 1) future career will be increasingly blurred; 2) Separation of work and employment; 3) Supply and demand of labor can be matched in time; 4) Work without discrimination. In addition, Alibaba is also in cooperation with the Vientiane logistics and other units, to actively solve the problem of the transfer of employment in traditional industries.

 

Ge Ling, 58 City Department of Government Affairs, as 58 city representatives of for the first time participated in China Quarterly Analysis of Employment. She said that 58 cities are also actively working with national government departments and other units to provide online recruitment of the latest data and reports. Meanwhile they fight against black job, and strive to establish high-quality, effective data indicators. 58 blue-collar research institute published a report shows that blue-collar job market has three major trends: (1) blue-collar groups shift from the manufacturing sector to the service sector; (2) blue-collar workers in the wage gap is gradually narrowing, employment localization. (3) blue-collar job gradually turn to Internet-based and mobile. Professor Yi Dinghong of the School of Labor and Human Resources of Renmin University of China pointed out that the research on employment needs to be extended to the whole macro-economy and the relationship between macroeconomics and labor market should be combined. For the understanding of the platform, he believes that the platform can reduce information asymmetry, providing financial settlement and accommodation, and the future of labor will be on the platform in the form of products and knowledge. Renmin University of China Institute of Labor and Human Resources Associate Professor Su Zhongxing suggested in the next published report, the industry classification should be further refined, such as the state of high-end manufacturing, HR services and other industries in the employment situation is not divided or counted in this report. In addition, the statistical calibra- tions for the different reports are best aligned to allow for deep data mining and analysis. Associate Professor Liu Xiangbo of the School of Labor and Human Resources of Renmin University of China believes that there is interaction between the markets. Macroeconomic policies can have an impact on people's consumption, investment, employment, length of work, contract signing, employment level, pay situation and so on. The future government departments and our researchers can pay more attention to the macroeconomic and labor markets in close contact.

 

Associate Professor Ge Yuhao of the School of Labor and Human Resources, Renmin University of China, expressed his doubts and opinions on the new economy. First, after the establishment of the platform is to become a monopoly? Second, are platform-based enterprises sufficiently motivated to share profits to improve the welfare of the community as a whole? Third, the current efficiency improvement is in the transaction costs, which has not yet reached the technological invention of human society.

 

Finally, Prof. Zeng Xiangquan gave a brief summary of the seminar. Overall, although the data is different, in different angles, but the cautious optimism of the current employment situation of the basic judgments tend to be consistent. Overall, the new economic job market boom was significantly better than the traditional economy. The two differentiated employment market shows two different extremes. It should be noted that, over the past 30 years, the focus of attention in our employment research has been the transfer of rural labor to the city in the industrialization and urbanization process. In recent years, with the new working age population decline, a significant reduction in rural surplus labor, China changing from the traditional manufacturing industry to service industry, the transfer of new and old industrial employment, the Internet, electricity providers, sharing economy and so on have become a major trend, and the focus of employment research will change. The future research direction should be: the relationship between the new economy and the old industry; employment patterns, lifestyles, national management and other long-term trend analysis and judgments; the close relationship between employment market and macroeconomic.

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